Politics Fateful election: France votes on parliament
The eagerly awaited parliamentary elections in France have entered the decisive round. The polling stations opened at 8.00 a.m. this morning. The French are voting on the majority in the National Assembly. Above all, however, everything revolves around the question: has President Emmanuel Macron paved the way to power for the right with the surprise re-election?
07.07.2024, 08:58
07.07.2024, 09:05
SDA
The latest polls do not show an absolute majority for Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN), which is in the lead. According to these, the right-wing nationalists and their allies would have between 205 and 240 seats. This would make them the strongest force in the National Assembly for the first time, but they would fall well short of the absolute majority of 289 seats.
The new left-wing alliance formed for the early parliamentary elections, consisting of the Greens, Socialists, Communists and Left Party, is in second place. According to the polling institutes, President Emmanuel Macron's centrist camp is facing a humiliating defeat, coming third in the polls.
Macron under pressure
As a result, there are no signs of a majority capable of governing. Regardless of the outcome of the election, it is expected that the existing government of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal will remain in office for a few more days on a caretaker basis until there is clarity about the formation of a future government. However, this could take some time - the situation is more muddled than it has been for a long time.
Should the RN win an absolute majority, Macron would be under political pressure to appoint a prime minister from the ranks of the right-wing nationalists - such as RN leader Jordan Bardella - for the first time. This would be a turning point in the country's history and would also have a major impact on European politics.
For the first time since 1997, there would be a so-called cohabitation in France. This means that the president and prime minister represent different political directions.
Conservatives could be kingmakers
With a strong relative majority for the RN, it is expected that it will try to win over more MPs from the conservative Républicains (LR) in order to gain decision-making power in parliament.
The former People's Party had split in the run-up to the election. Its leader Éric Ciotti had agreed to cooperate with the RN without his party's consent, but only a small number of MPs followed him. The question now is how the remaining MPs, who won around ten percent of the vote in the first round, will behave.
Impending deadlock
At the moment, it remains to be seen what will happen in France if the alliance against the RN actually works. As seats in parliament are allocated according to the majority voting system, the third-placed candidates of the other parties in the first round have withdrawn in over 200 constituencies to increase the chances of the remaining candidate from a bourgeois party beating the candidate of the right-wing nationalists. This is not the first time that such a protective wall against the extreme right has been practiced in France. Whether it will lead to a viable government remains to be seen.
The other camps - including the reinvigorated Socialists - have already made it clear that they do not want to govern together in a kind of national coalition. The current government could then remain in office as a transitional government or an expert government could be appointed.
The Macron alliance could be left in shambles after the president's power play with the early parliamentary elections and only have a greatly reduced number of representatives in parliament. A government without a majority would not be able to get new projects off the ground. This threatens to bring France to a political standstill.
Following the victory of Le Pen's Rassemblement National in the European elections at the beginning of June, Macron dissolved the National Assembly and announced a new election. The National Assembly is one of two French chambers of parliament. It is involved in legislation and can topple the government with a vote of no confidence.
However, as in the European elections, the right-wing nationalists were ahead in the first round of voting, followed by the new left-wing alliance and Macron's centrist camp in third place. 76 of the 577 seats have already been allocated, most of them to the RN (39) or the left-wing alliance (32) - in the remaining constituencies, the decision will only be made in the run-off vote.
