Change of leadership in Brussels The new Nato chief Mark Rutte inherits these five problems

The search for a new Nato Secretary General took longer than expected. But now there will be a change. Someone who has not always been entirely diplomatic in the past is taking over.

Jens Stoltenberg (65) has been at the helm of the world's most powerful defense alliance for ten years. This Tuesday, the Norwegian will hand over the office of NATO Secretary General to former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte (57).

Will the alliance change under the new leadership? At one point or another, this cannot be ruled out. An overview by topic:

In contrast to heads of state and government such as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Stoltenberg has been one of those politicians over the past two years who have persistently campaigned for the greatest possible support for Ukraine with Western weapons systems.

He was of the opinion that, in the current situation, it was better to help Ukraine in case of doubt than to fulfill alliance goals for the provision of weapons and ammunition. Stoltenberg also argued in a similarly pro-Ukrainian manner in the discussions about a concrete NATO accession perspective for Ukraine.

Will Rutte continue on this course? Ukraine can hope so. The Dutchman is influenced by the MH-17 disaster in the summer of 2014, when a Russian missile brought down a passenger plane over eastern Ukraine. Almost 200 Dutch people were among the 298 victims.

Rutte has recently made it clear on several occasions that he believes Ukraine should be able to use Western weapons systems against Russia without restrictions. During his term of office as Prime Minister, it was also decided to make Dutch F-16 fighter jets available to Ukraine.

In terms of economic power, the Netherlands was also one of the countries that provided the most military support to Ukraine under his leadership.

Rutte's new job is likely to be a particularly big challenge if Donald Trump returns to the White House after the US presidential election in November. Statements made by the Republican in the past have raised doubts as to whether the USA would fully stand by its commitment to mutual assistance under his leadership.

During his term of office from 2017 to 2021, Trump had already repeatedly railed against what he considered to be insufficient defense spending by European allies and at times even threatened to withdraw the USA from the alliance. Rutte has big shoes to fill when it comes to Trump: Stoltenberg earned a great deal of respect during Donald Trump's first term of office because he repeatedly managed to mediate and calm things down.

Would Rutte succeed in doing the same? The conditions could be worse. During a meeting with Rutte in 2019, Trump said that he and Rutte had become friends. He described relations between the Netherlands and the USA as better than ever before.

Whether Trump is elected or not, a top issue for Rutte will be campaigning for higher defense spending from European allies. However, Rutte has little credibility on this issue.

Under him as Prime Minister, the Netherlands still only spent 1.2% of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense in 2018. Only this year could the so-called two percent target of NATO be narrowly achieved. During Stoltenberg's term of office, the defense spending of the NATO states increased significantly.

However, there was a real surge in investment after the start of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, and Stoltenberg made it clear in one of his last speeches that he believes that two percent of GDP will not be enough to guarantee secure defense and deterrence.

There are far more question marks when it comes to Rutte's relations with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Will the Dutchman manage to keep his conflicts with these two under control?

The relationship between Rutte and Erdogan and Rutte and Orban is considered extremely difficult. As Prime Minister, Rutte made it clear after the introduction of an anti-gay law in Hungary that he no longer saw any place for the country in the EU. Rutte clashed with Erdogan, among other things, because the latter criticized election campaign appearance bans for Turkish government members in the Netherlands.

Whether Rutte will be as successful a Secretary General as Jens Stoltenberg will ultimately depend on whether he sees himself as the representative of all the heads of state and government of the NATO states. As a military superpower, the USA sets the tone in NATO, but the consensus principle ensures that every other ally can also prevent decisions with a veto.

The main task of the Secretary General of NATO is therefore to coordinate the political coordination processes between the allies and to ensure that a consensus can be reached even on difficult issues.

Stoltenberg understood this job. With his reserved manner, patience and diplomatic skills, he repeatedly succeeded in resolving blockades. Most recently, for example, he managed to persuade Hungary and Turkey to give up their vetoes against Sweden and Finland joining NATO.

One of the most bitter moments during Stoltenberg's time in office was the Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan forced by the USA, which ended with the Taliban returning to power.

Rutte will no longer have to deal with this issue to any great extent, but at the same time American pressure is likely to increase further to position the alliance much more strongly than before against possible threats from China. This could be a difficult balancing act for Rutte.

European allies such as France and Germany are rather critical of the USA's China policy.

After his departure, Stoltenberg will probably continue to exert global influence on security issues in a new role: According to media reports, he will replace Christoph Heusgen as head of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) next year.

Reports to this effect have been confirmed to the German Press Agency by several sources. Since its foundation in 1963, the Munich Security Conference has developed into one of the most important international forums for security policy.

dpa