Polls on the ballot on March 8 Individual taxation on the brink - the SRG can hope
Less than two weeks before the ballot on March 8, clear trends are emerging. According to several polls, the cash initiative and the introduction of individual taxation have good chances, while the SRG halving initiative and the climate fund initiative are clearly lagging behind.
25.02.2026, 06:09
25.02.2026, 07:10
SDA
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- The cash initiative and the counter-proposal have a majority in all major polls.
- Individual taxation is just in the Yes range, but is losing support.
- The "halving initiative" is losing support. Meanwhile, 57% reject the proposal.
According to the second wave of the 20 Minuten/Tamedia poll conducted on February 18 and 19, the results of which were published on Wednesday, the cash initiative is supported by 53% of respondents, while the counter-proposal to the cash initiative is supported by 65%. The introduction of individual taxation is also supported by a majority of 53% of voters.
The SRG halving initiative, on the other hand, was rejected by 57% of respondents and the climate fund initiative by as many as 68%.
Respondents in the SRG survey conducted between February 11 and 19 were even more clearly in favor of the cash initiative, with 61% and as many as 70% in favor of the counter-proposal. The result for individual taxation would have been somewhat narrower, with 52% in favor.
The SRG halving initiative would have been narrowly rejected with 54%. And the climate fund initiative would have failed by a clear margin with 65% of votes against.
The survey conducted by the market and opinion research institute Yougov showed that 52% would vote in favor of the cash initiative. The counter-proposal even received 63 percent. Individual taxation did not receive quite as much support as in the other surveys. 49% said yes and 44% no. Around 8% are undecided.
The SRG initiative was clearly rejected with 58% voting no. The climate fund initiative had an even tougher time, with 20 percent of votes in favor.
No cash majority among younger people
According to the 20 Minuten/Tamedia survey, the cash initiative is only supported by supporters of the SVP. The counter-proposal, on the other hand, is supported by supporters of all major parties - i.e. the Greens, SP, GLP, Center, FDP and SVP. Support is particularly high among FDP and centrist sympathizers. The SRG survey shows similar party affiliations in voting behavior.
According to 20 Minuten/Tamedia, approval is equally high among women and men. The initiative also enjoys majority support in all language groups and settlement types. In German-speaking Switzerland and in cities, however, this majority is very narrow.
The initiative does not achieve a majority among 18 to 34-year-olds and among people with a higher education. It also failed to gain a majority among people with a monthly income of over CHF 10,000.
The SRG survey shows a clear crumbling of support for the introduction of disability taxation. According to the analysis of the survey results, there is a shift away from the well-accepted idea towards the weaknesses of the proposal. A drop of 12 percentage points in the Yes vote within just under a month is extraordinarily high. However, the formation of opinion is only moderately advanced. This leaves room for maneuver.
SRG halving: SVP and rather younger people
According to the 20 Minuten/Tamedia survey, the SRG halving initiative is only supported by a majority of SVP supporters - albeit a very clear 80 percent. It is clearly rejected by all other party sympathizers surveyed. The "no" rate is particularly high among the SP, Greens and GLP.
The rejection is stronger among women (60%) than among men (54%). In all language regions, the "no" vote is predominant, most clearly in French-speaking Switzerland with 60%. There is no majority for the proposal in either urban or rural areas. There is also not enough support in any income bracket.
The SRG halving initiative only achieved a majority among the two youngest age groups of 18 to 34-year-olds and 35 to 49-year-olds, as well as among people with only compulsory schooling.
Climate fund yes only among Greens and SP
According to the 20 Minuten/Tamedia survey, the climate fund initiative is clearly supported by the supporters of the Greens and the SP with 77 and 62 percent in favor respectively. On the other hand, supporters of the GLP, Center Party, FDP and SVP reject the initiative, with the rejection among the SVP and FDP base being particularly strong.
The climate fund initiative did not achieve a majority in any relevant social group. However, there are notable differences in voting intention according to gender, settlement type and level of education: women, voters living in urban areas and people with a university degree show a higher level of approval.
For those in favor, the core argument that the initiative makes the protection of the climate and nature a public task is particularly important. Climate protection would thus be financed fairly and no one would be left alone.
14,570 people from all over Switzerland took part in the second wave of the survey conducted by 20 Minuten and Tamedia on February 18 and 19 in the run-up to the federal referendum on March 8. The survey was conducted in collaboration with the Leewas Institute in Lucerne.
The second wave of the SRG SSR trend survey was conducted by the research institute gfs.bern between February 11 and 19 among 11,754 voters. Yougov surveyed 3308 voters for its opinion barometer between February 9 and 23 via online interviews.
