Data-based outlook 26th place and no gold - the gloomy Swiss medal forecast

Martin Abgottspon

26.7.2024

Not winning a single gold medal would be somewhat disappointing from a Swiss perspective.
Not winning a single gold medal would be somewhat disappointing from a Swiss perspective.
Imago

It will be extremely difficult to top the last Olympic Games from a Swiss perspective. But for Switzerland to go home without a single gold medal? The Gracenote forecasting platform assumes this scenario.

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  • The last Olympic Games in Tokyo were the most successful in modern times for Switzerland in terms of medals.
  • No medal targets have been set for Paris. The aim is to achieve a similar result to 2016 in Rio.
  • One forecasting platform believes Switzerland is capable of winning a few medals, but none of them gold.

On Friday evening, 128 Swiss athletes will travel down the Seine for the opening ceremony of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris. For some of them, this is already a dream come true. Some have somewhat higher ambitions and are rightly flirting with a diploma or even a medal.

After the Swiss outdid themselves three years ago in Tokyo with 13 medals, Ralph Stöckli did not set a medal target for the 24 disciplines in which Switzerland is competing this time. "Let's be realistic: since 1972, Switzerland has won an average of five medals at the Summer Games and, with the exception of Tokyo, has never achieved a double-digit figure," said the Swiss Chef de Mission.

"I think we can take inspiration from the 2016 Summer Games, which were also a success." He would be delighted if Switzerland could repeat the seven medals it won in Rio.

Last time without gold in 1988

That sounds modest. After all, Switzerland has several trump cards for a top result in mountain biking. There is also a good chance of medals in horse riding, rowing and judo.

The Gracenote Sports forecasting platform takes a similar view, although the data-based prediction does not believe that Switzerland will win the Olympics. It is expected to win 12 medals, including 6 silver and 6 bronze. This would put Switzerland in 26th place in the medal table, behind Uzbekistan.

According to the platform, the forecast is a statistical model based on individual and team results from previous Olympic Games, World Championships and World Cups. This seems somewhat surprising, as Switzerland has always had at least one Olympic champion or winner since 1992.

Switzerland's medal tally at previous Games.
Switzerland's medal tally at previous Games.
Keystone

However, there are no major surprises at the top of the predicted medal table. The USA appears in first place. It is followed by China and Great Britain and then France. For the host nation, the home Games would be the most successful in the last 124 years.

This is what the top of the medal table looks like according to the Gracenote forecasting platform.
This is what the top of the medal table looks like according to the Gracenote forecasting platform.
Gracenote

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