Six games, three draws, three defeats: YB have never had such a weak start to a season since the Super League was introduced in 2003. Despite qualifying for the Champions League, alarm bells are ringing in Bern.
If you had bet that YB would be the only team in the Super League without a win after six games and would be sitting at the bottom of the table, you would certainly have won a lot of money.
In fact, YB have never started a Super League season as badly as they have this season. The negative record dates back to the 2008/09 season, when it was seven points after six games, more than twice as many as this year. Back then, YB picked up just one point from their first four games, which cost coach Erminio Piscerchia his job. Under future national team coach Vladimir Petkovic, YB started a race to catch up and finished the season as runners-up behind FCZ.
The only team to start a season worse than YB as reigning champions was FCZ in the 2022/23 season. At the same time, the Zurich club had just two points in their account. FCZ finished the season in third-last place with 44 points. But the Zurich team also needed a change of coach. After eight rounds (2 points), Breitenreiter's hapless successor, Franco Foda, had to vacate the post. Genesio Colatrella took over on an interim basis for two games (2 points) before the current Mainz coach Bo Henriksen was hired and breathed new life into the Zurich team.
Numbers don't lie - YB is historically weak in the league
- For the first time in the history of the Super League, YB have not won any of their first 6 games (3 defeats, 3 draws).
- As reigning champions, only FCZ started a Super League season (introduced in 2003) worse than YB in the 2022/23 season. At the same time, the Zurich club had just two points to their name.
- The last time YB started so poorly was in 1996, 28 years ago in the then National League A. The Bernese were relegated that season.
- For the first time since 2022, YB have gone 6 games in a row without a win; back then, the Bernese even went 7 league games in a row without a win from March to April (2 under David Wagner, 5 under Matteo Vanetta).
- YB conceded 9 points in the Super League this season after taking the lead - more than any other team.
- YB conceded 14 goals in the first 6 Super League games under coach Patrick Rahmen, more than in the previous 12 games under Joël Magnin (10 goals conceded).
- Patrick Rahmen is still winless in the Super League since April. Back then, he won 1-0 with Winterthur at Stade-Lausanne-Ouchy, but since then he has conceded 10 defeats across the season with FCW and YB, followed by 3 draws recently.
YB not yet on the right track in the league
After three defeats at the start of the season, YB have drawn twice in the league, followed by three must-win matches (Cup and Champions League play-offs). Anyone who thought that YB would take the momentum from the successful Champions League qualifiers into the league on Saturday evening was left rubbing their eyes in amazement.
YB barely put one foot in front of the other against Lausanne-Sport. The fact that Patrick Rahmen's team still managed to pick up a point in the end was more than fortunate. Lausanne-Sport fired 18 shots in the Wankdorf, 8 of which were on target. YB, on the other hand, only took 6 shots, but only one of them landed in Karlo Letica's box - but it promptly ended up in the net.
However, Filip Ugrinic's shot does not appear to be unstoppable, which is also reflected in the "Expected Goals" statistics at the end of the game (0.18 to 1.91). A 2-0 away win for Lausanne would have been more in keeping with the result than the 1-1 draw, leaving the YB camp feeling perplexed and frustrated just four days after the triumph in Istanbul. Incidentally, Ugrinic's expected goal value was 0.01.
What are expected goals?
- The xG value (xG stands for "expected goals") is always between 0 and 1 for each action. It can be used to clearly determine the probability of the ball landing in the goal from this point for each scoring opportunity.
- "xG 0.25" therefore means: 25 out of 100 shots from this position result in a goal.
- The value is based on large amounts of data from previous years and mathematical models. This gives each goal a statistical value.
- Take a penalty kick, for example: Here, the ball is always in the center of the goal, eleven meters from the line and only the goalkeeper is in the way of the shot. A penalty kick has a value of xG 0.77. In other words: On average, pretty much three out of four penalties are converted. A penalty is therefore not a "100 percent chance of scoring", but "only" a 77 percent chance.
- It is important to know that the quality of a chance is calculated independently of the person who takes the shot. So it doesn't matter whether Lionel Messi appears in front of the goalkeeper or Filip Ugrinic.
YB could be even worse off in the league
Is YB simply unlucky in the league? To get to the bottom of this question, blue News takes another look at the statistics books, more precisely at the "Expected Goals", i.e. how many goals YB should have scored or conceded as expected. According to the statistics, should YB be in a better position than they are?
The answer is: No! Although YB deserved a draw against Servette, they should have lost against FCZ and most recently Lausanne. The Bernese should therefore not be complaining if they were to end up with just two points, as FCZ once did.
All YB results in the 2024/25 season
You can see the "Expected Goals" in brackets
- July 21: YB - Sion 1:2 (1.21 : 1.50) => 1:2*
- July 24: Servette YB 3:1 (1.96 : 2.02) => 2:2*
- July 28: St.Gallen - YB 4:0 (2.84 : 1.16) => 3:1*
- August 4: YB - FCZ 2:2 (0.97 : 2.03) => 1:2*
- August 10: Yverdon-Sport - YB 2:2 (0.85 : 1.27) => 1:1*
- August 17: Printse-Nendaz (2nd league) - YB 0:10 (Cup)
- August 21: YB - Galatasaray 3:2 (UCL playoffs) 1.90 : 2.18 => 2:2*
- August 27: Galatasaray - YB 0:1 (UCL playoffs) 0.86 : 2.69 => 1:3*
- August 31: YB - Lausanne 1:1 (0.18 : 1.91) => 0:2*
* Expected result according to statistics (rounded)
And yet: Not everything is going wrong for YB
To speak of a historically weak start to the season in general would be presumptuous. Because as much as the Young Boys are weakening in the league, they have fulfilled their duty in the cup against second division side Printse-Nendaz with a 10:0 victory and exceeded expectations in the Champions League play-offs against Galatasaray Istanbul. Now it is up to Patrick Rahmen to get his players up to operating temperature in the league as well, otherwise the air will eventually become too thin for him too.
